After All-Star Weekend, the regular season is less than two months away. For many teams, the sprint to the playoffs has also entered a critical stage. In the midst of increasing competition, which teams are most likely to be left behind?

Before we get to that, let's take a look at which teams are basically locked in the playoffs and which are basically out of the playoffs, and the last thing that remains is the teams we're going to discuss.

Judging from the playoff probabilities of the well-known data website Basketball-Reference (hereinafter referred to as BP), the teams with more than 90% of the probability of the playoffs are considered to be basically locked in the playoffs.

There are currently six teams in the East that meet this criterion, with their current probability of qualifying for the playoffs in parentheses: Cavaliers, Celtics, Knicks (100% for all three teams), Pacers (98.0%), Bucks (96.4%) and Pistons (92.4%). There are currently five teams in the West that meet this criterion: the Thunder, Grizzlies (100% for both teams), Nuggets (99.8%), Rockets (99.6%), and Timberwolves (90.9%).

Also, which teams are basically out of the playoffs? The probability of the playoffs on this site is less than 2%, and we consider that the teams will basically miss the playoffs. There are four teams in the East that meet this criterion: the Raptors (1.9%), the Nets (1.4%), the Hornets and the Wizards (0% for both teams). There are three teams in the West that meet this criterion: the Trail Blazers (0.1%), the Jazz and the Pelicans (0% for both teams).

Based on the above analysis, the East is expected to have 5 teams competing for the last 2 playoff spots, and the West is expected to have 7 teams competing for the last 3 playoff spots.

Let's take a look at the east first, with the current record in parentheses -

The five teams in the East are the Magic (27-29), Hawks (26-29), Heat (25-28), Bulls (22-33), and 76ers (20-34). These five teams are vying for four play-off spots, so who will be the team to be squeezed out of the play-offs?

Judging by the difficulty of the rest of the schedule of these five teams, the Bulls are 16th, the Hawks are 23rd, the Magic are 24th, the Heat are 25th, and the 76ers are 27th. The Heat, Magic and Hawks currently have a leading record and a difficult schedule, and they are likely to lock up the play-offs, and the only suspense may be the Bulls and 76ers, who will be the first to go out?

The strength of the lineup after the Bulls trade is average, and the remaining schedule is the most difficult among these teams, and although the 76ers currently have the worst record, Embiid + George + Maxey is expected to squeeze out the Bulls as long as they can stay healthy and the skinny camel is bigger than the horse.

So, judging by the current situation in the East, the Chicago Bulls are the most likely to be left behind.

Let's take a look at the more complicated and competitive west.

The seven teams in the West are the Lakers (32-20), Clippers (31-23), Mavericks (30-26), Kings (28-27), Warriors (28-27), Suns (26-28), and Spurs (23-29).

Let's also take a look at the difficulty of the rest of the schedule of these 7 teams, the Suns are 1st, the Kings are 2nd, the Clippers are 5th, the Lakers are 6th, the Spurs are 11th, the Mavericks are 20th, and the Warriors are 22nd.

The Suns' prospects are not good, on the one hand, they have the most difficult remaining fixtures in the league, and on the other hand, their recent form has not been good, with 3 wins and 7 losses in their last 10 games, and they are currently on a three-game losing streak. Bill couldn't send it away, and Richards couldn't solve the underlying problem. The Suns, who are currently ranked 11th in the West, may not even be able to enter the playoffs, and BP predicts that the probability of the Suns advancing to the playoffs is only 2.6%!

The Spurs are not much better, they only have 23 wins at the moment, and their record is too far behind, in addition, although their schedule is less difficult than the Suns, Kings and other teams, but the Spurs' own strength and form are also average. With the introduction of Fox, the team needs more time to settle in, and the last 10 games are also 3-7. Wemban's taste of the playoffs will have to wait until next season. BP predicts that the probability of the Spurs advancing to the playoffs is only 2.3%!

Judging by the current situation in the West, the Suns and Spurs are the most likely to be left behind. Although the Mavericks have lost a large number of interior players due to injuries, the "capital" accumulated in front is still quite thick, they currently have 3 more wins than the Suns, 5 more wins than the Spurs, and the Mavericks have 6 wins and 4 losses in the last 10 games. Under the leadership of Irving and Klay, the Mavericks' remnants still have strength that should not be underestimated.

Compared to the Mavericks, Warriors and other teams, the future of the Kings may be even worse, on the one hand, it will take time for LaVine to run in with the existing system, and on the other hand, the Kings have the second most difficult schedule in the league, second only to the Suns. If the Suns want to squeeze into the play-in tournament in the second half of the season, they are most likely to target the Kings.

Which teams do you think are most likely to be left behind? Feel free to leave a message to express your opinions.