Seven key numbers to interpret the decisive Game 7: the home team holds a record of 15 wins and 4 losses. Will the Thunder gain an advantage at the free-throw line?

On June 22, Beijing time, the NBA's official website presented seven key statistics to interpret the forthcoming Game 7 of the Finals, where the Thunder and Pacers will face off for the title.

15 wins and 4 losses

Home team win rate in Game 7 of the Finals: The home team has a record of 15 wins and 4 losses in Game 7 of the Finals, but the last time (2016 when the Cavaliers beat the Warriors) the trophy was taken by the visiting team. Since that game (excluding the three Game 7s in the 2020 bubble without home-court advantage), the visiting team has won 14 of the last 26 Game 7s in the playoffs.

Last season, the Pacers won their Game 7 in the Eastern Conference semifinals by a staggering 21 points at Madison Square Garden, setting a playoff record for shooting percentage (67.1%);

This season, the Thunder defeated the Nuggets by 32 points in their Game 7 of the Western Conference semifinals, limiting their opponents to just 93 points in 101 possessions.

Players who have played multiple Game 7s in the series:

3 times: Siakam, Myles Turner

2 times: Dort, Alexander, Hartenstein, Nesmith

6.7

Difference in offensive efficiency in Game 7s: In the four Game 7s of the Finals with detailed data recorded, both teams scored an average of 6.7 points lower per 100 possessions compared to the average of the first six games of the series, with a slower pace of 2.4 possessions per 48 minutes.

Slow pace and low efficiency make games more competitive: The point difference in the last eight Game 7s of the Finals has been single digits;

In the first six games, the Thunder and Pacers scored 110.0 points per 100 possessions, with a pace of 99.8 possessions per 48 minutes, suggesting a potential "back-and-forth battle" where each possession yields about 1 point;

The two games the Pacers won in the Finals (G1, G6) were both "ugly games" (with total scores of 107.8 and 98.5 per 100 possessions). In the playoffs, when they score below 110 points per 100 possessions, their record is 2 wins and 6 losses (series record 2 wins and 2 losses);

The Thunder have a record of 1 win and 6 losses when scoring below 110 points per 100 possessions, with their only win being in Game 4 of the Western Conference semifinals against the Nuggets.

19.4

Offensive efficiency difference in Thunder's wins and losses: In their three wins in the Finals, the Thunder scored 120.4 points per 100 possessions, while in their three losses, they only scored 101.0 points, resulting in a difference of 19.4 points, which is more decisive than the Pacers' offensive fluctuations (110.6 and 108.5).

Thunder head coach Daigneault stated, "Our defense has been more stable than our offense in the playoffs."

The performance of role players is crucial: Caruso, Wiggins, and Wallace achieved an effective field goal percentage of 59.8% in wins, compared to only 39.0% in losses;

Additionally, in wins, the Thunder had a lower turnover rate (13.9% vs. 15.4%), a higher free throw rate (40.6% vs. 31.9%), and a better offensive rebound rate (36.4% vs. 24.3%).

32.9%

Thunder's three-point shooting percentage: In the Finals, only 32.9% of the Thunder's shot attempts came from beyond the arc, the lowest of any series in this year's playoffs, significantly down from 40.6% in the first three rounds. In six games, they were outscored by 54 points from three-point range.

An even more critical decline is in "catch-and-shoot" attempts: they averaged 28.5 attempts in the first three rounds (third among the 16 playoff teams), but only 20.2 attempts per game in the Finals.

705

Pacers' passing advantage: According to Second Spectrum tracking, the Pacers made 705 more passes than the Thunder in the six games.

The Thunder's decrease in passing is the main reason for the drop in catch-and-shoot opportunities: they made 65 more passes per 24 minutes in the first three rounds compared to the Finals; conversely, the Pacers increased their passing numbers from the conference semifinals (where they had the second-highest passing attempts after the Warriors);

Alexander and Jalen Williams saw their assist rate after driving drop from 39% in the first three rounds to 29%, with more turnovers (13) than assists (10);

In the last four games, the Thunder recorded 65 assists and 67 turnovers as a team, with their assist-to-turnover ratio in the three games at the Pacers' home (G3, G4, G6) hitting a season low (the lowest in 104 games).

35

Thunder's free throw scoring margin: In the six games, the Thunder outscored the Pacers at the free-throw line by a total of 35 points (154-119). In fact, the Pacers have trailed in free throw scoring in 14 of their last 16 games.

This is largely due to defensive issues: In the playoffs, opponents have averaged 33.6 free throw attempts per 100 field goal attempts against the Pacers, the highest of any team that has advanced past the first round in the last decade;

Among players who have played over 150 minutes in the playoffs, Thomas Bryant (5.4), Nesmith (5.2), and Ben Shepard (4.7) rank first, second, and fifth in average fouls per game.

51 minutes and 29 seconds

Nembhard's time defending Alexander: In the six games, Nembhard spent 51 minutes and 29 seconds defending Alexander, which is 18 minutes and 31 seconds longer than the second-ranked single coverage time in the series (which was Dort defending Haliburton for 32 minutes and 58 seconds).

The Pacers have been more aggressive in double-teaming Alexander in the last four games (30% of the time he was double-teamed, compared to only 18% in the first two games);

In the last two games, the rate of switching on screens against Alexander (16%) was higher than in the first four games (7%).